Wednesday, August 12, 2009

World Cup 2006 Blog

World Cup 2006 Blog

Link to World Cup Soccer - South Africa 2010

10 Reasons to Watch Mexico vs USA Today

Posted: 12 Aug 2009 05:10 AM PDT

There are eight World Cup qualifiers scheduled for today, but - with all due respect to Azerbaijan vs Germany - the pick of the bunch is easily Mexico vs USA at Estadio Azteca.

Here are 10 reasons to watch…


1. This is the big game in CONCACAF. The Argentina vs Brazil of CONCACAF if you will. The two best teams battling to see who’s boss. So even if you’re not a Mexico or US fan, this game deserves your attention.

2. This isn’t one of those mutual respect rivalries. Or even one of those let’s be friends afterwards rivalries. This is one of those “I’m going to hurt you” rivalries.

3. World Cup places are at stake. Though Mexico and the US are the CONCACAF top dogs, neither top the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying group (that honour currently belongs to Costa Rica). USA are in second, Mexico in fourth.



CONCACAF only gets 3.5 World Cup places (top three qualify, fourth plays off vs fifth place CONMEBOL team) so a defeat would be bad news for either team, a draw leaves Mexico still sweating.

4. USA has never - repeat: Never - beaten Mexico at the Azteca. Or anywhere else in Mexico for that matter. Whether it’s the altitude, the hostile reception, or just the pressure, USA’s 23 games south of the border have yielded only 22 defeats and a draw. Or, as Al at Mexico WCB puts it: “Undefeated to the USA at home since the creation of the sport.”

5. Mexico just got a big win in the US. Mexico had a similar problem, having not beat their northern rivals on American soil for over a decade. But that all changed last month with a 5-0 Gold Cup Final win in New Jersey. It may not have been two first XIs, but it was still big psychologically and statistically. And puts even more pressure on the US to get an away win.

6. USA are high on confidence. Ignoring the Gold Cup, the full strength US team just had huge unexpected success at the Confederations Cup in South Africa, beating Spain in the semi-final and coming thisclose to beating Brazil in the final. Bob Bradley has picked more or less the same squad for this game.

7. Sven Goran Eriksson is no longer in charge of Mexico. Which is good news for anyone looking to enjoy a football match. At any level.

8. ESPN are doing a pre-game show… even though they don’t have the US broadcast rights for the actual game. Which is insane when you think about it. For those in America who actually want to watch the game, it will be on Telemundo in Spanish, and on the little known Mun2 in English. Mun2 will be available free of charge in most media markets, apparently.

9. The Estadio Azteca. USA may not enjoy visiting, but the atmosphere should be incredible. Estadio Azteca holds 105,000 and will be full for this game. Which should look a little something like this:


10. Our coverage here on World Cup Blog. El Tri fans can read Al’s preview on Mexico WCB. USA fans can follow Brooks and Marlon’s LiveBlog on USA WCB.

Sporting News Today: Why the Steelers will repeat as Super Bowl champs

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Sporting News Today: Former closer Todd Jones analyzes MLB's best rotations

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Monday, August 10, 2009

Sporting News Today: Close to crunch time for pennant chasers

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Sunday, August 9, 2009

Your August Newsletter is Here


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Sporting News Today: T.O. is the show tonight in Bills' debut

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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Sporting News Today: Can Cardinals overcome Super Bowl-loser curse?

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Friday, August 7, 2009

Sporting News Today: Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Virginia Tech start camp dreaming of Pasadena

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Thursday, August 6, 2009

World Cup 2006 Blog

World Cup 2006 Blog

Link to World Cup Soccer - South Africa 2010

FIFA World Rankings: August 2009 (Or: FIFA Rankings vs Elo Ratings, Round 2)

Posted: 05 Aug 2009 02:40 PM PDT

The new FIFA World Rankings are out. Well, I say new, they’re actually very very similar to the July 2009 rankings, with just Germany and Italy switching places in the top 10.

The way this usually works: We publish the rankings here on WCB, and then everyone complains in the comments about how inaccurate they are. And with good reason. Russia probably shouldn’t be two places above Argentina for example.

But this month I want to repeat an experiment we did last year and compare the current FIFA rankings with the rival World Football Elo Ratings System.

Rather than repeating information, please allow me the indulgence of quoting myself from when we first compared FIFA and Elo, back in September 2008:

The main alternative to FIFA's calculations is the World Football Elo Rating System, adapted from Dr. Elo's world chess rating system by footy fan Bob Runyan.

How do the two differ? Basically the FIFA system works like a big league table of the last four year's results, but with points weighted by the type of game (eg World Cup final more valuable than a friendly), the opposition, confederation and time past since the game. Laurie furnished us with an excellent explanation here (seriously, go read that if you want to understand the FIFA system.)

The Elo system works a little - but not dramatically - differently. As with FIFA's it's a giant league table, but using data from (and I quote) "international football 1872 - present". The system takes into account the type of game (World Cup, friendly, etc) but also the score as well as the result (ie how many goal did a team win by) and also the win expectancy (ie was the team expected to win, and by how many goals.)

A full explanation of the Elo football system can be found here.

On that occasion, we compared the rival system’s top 20s, and put it to a vote. The result was that 69% of people favoured Elo over FIFA. So, let’s do it again and see if anything has changed. Here’s the FIFA top 20 (published August 5th) followed by the Elo top 20 (published July 27th).



Complete rankings at FIFA.com



Full Elo Ratings here

And here’s the Poll. Which top 20 most accurately reflects reality: FIFA rankings or Elo Ratings?

Sporting News Today: Why the Red Sox have the upper hand in rivalry with Yankees

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