Thursday, November 12, 2009

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ESPN Can Predict The Future.

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 12:40 PM PST

353093675330959364espn_corp_logoESPN has taken more than their fair share of stick for their football/soccer coverage, and for good reason. They’re American (despite dubbing themselves The Global Leader) and, by and large, they do American sports well. Others: not so much.

But they’ve gone off-script with their latest venture, the Soccer Power Index, designed to render World Cup 2010 moot. Much like every other acronym in the sporting world, they’ve compiled a list of rankings designed to tell us the fairest in the land. Unlike the other rankings systems, they don’t want the answer to the here and now. No, they want the future.

And don’t we all.

Why rate the teams at all? Well, from my perspective, we do it not because we’re interested in the past, but because we’re interested in the future. The SPI ratings are intended to be forward-looking. They’re intended to be predictive; every variable in the SPI has been tuned to give you the best possible objective and statistical forecast of how a team will perform in South Africa.

It’s a novel idea, yet one ultimately doomed to failure as that is simply the nature of football rankings system.

The methodologies require a four year major in SoccerPowerIndexology and it wouldn’t be imprudent to sail into the doctorate program as well. But then no one said predicting the future would be easy.

spi

So from this we can decipher…

  • Brazil will win number 6, which most should be predicting anyway.
  • Fabio Capello’s semifinal or bust ultimatum wasn’t so imprudent, what with Peter Crouch scoring a perfect hat trick in the Third Placed Game.
  • Diego Maradona will be canned, resign or die from bloating in the next 8 months, as there’s no way in hell they’re making it to the quarters with him on the sidelines.
  • Italy & France will get bounced in the Round of 16 and both will deny that South Africa 2010 ever happened, much like 2002.
  • Bonus prediction: Raymond Domenech will keep his job.
  • Croatia will nearly make it out of the group stages, despite not traveling to South Africa. Presumably based entirely on Slaven Bilic’s coolness.
  • The only African team to make it to the knockouts will be, rather disappointingly, Cameroon, where they will not win a game.
  • Home advantage is a myth. South Africa: 65th.

And all this makes the rankings both curious and brilliant, as they house a built-in mechanism which renders them near inarguable. Can you predict the future better than them? Are you the reincarnation of Nostradamus? Didn’t think so.

Well, there is one argument easily made: Guus Hiddink won’t win one in the knockouts with Russia?

Bullshit.

MLB teams plot offseason roster moves

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

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Club vs Country Crisis Averted: Cristiano Ronaldo Officially Out of World Cup Playoffs

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 05:10 AM PST

ronaldo ankleThis seems almost impossibly unimportant following the sad news of Robert Enke’s passing, but Cristiano Ronaldo will now definitely miss both legs of Portugal’s World Cup 2010 playoff vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (November 14th and 18th). The story had been steadily building into the club vs country smackdown to end all club vs country smackdowns, with Real Madrid insisting their player was injured and unavailable (and doubly so since said ankle injury is a direct result of C-Ron playing for Portugal last month when not fully fit) and Portugal maintaining it was there right to call up whoever they want. I got the feeling that fingers in both camps were hovering over metaphorical nuclear weapon buttons. But…

Incredibly, a very sensible compromise was reached. Real had initially refused to release Ronaldo, but then decided to let him meet up with the Portuguese squad and staff so they could see for themselves that his ankle was not football-ready. So he did, and they did, and all are now agreed that Cristiano Ronaldo needs more time to recover.

“After clinical evaluation and imaging, it was concluded that the player is not physically able to integrate the preparation stage of the national team for these games,” read a statement on the Portuguese FF’s Web site on Tuesday night.

“The Portuguese Football Federation wish the player a good and quick recovery.”

A rare club vs country case where everyone did the right thing and the correct decision was made.

NFL midseason report: New Orleans dominates players' first-half poll

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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

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The Battle For Cristiano Ronaldo’s Soul & Other, Less Significant Club v Country Standoffs.

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 01:32 PM PST

Cristiano-Ronaldo-Portugal-Euro-2008-Training_921770Who needs actual footballing playoffs when you can just watch the bureaucratic battle that is club v country?

Whilst Portugal v Bosnia – Herzegovina is titillating the football purist and Russia v Slovenia has forced Jonathan Wilson into euphoric bouts of nervous bowels, the real battle lies behind the scenes, in the board rooms, between those who cut the checks and those who require international glory.

The big issue is, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo and that pesky little ankle of his. Yet as ever with international weekends, there is gladiatorial sparring befitting of Rome itself.

(Mostly because Roma’s involved.)

The Portuguese Man O’Oil has been out since September after taking a hit to the ankle against Marseille. What would’ve been a standard few weeks off turned into an affair when, against the wishes of the great Real Madrid, he played in Portugal’s must-win against Hungary. As is always the case, he reinjured the ankle and has been unable to feature for the team which cuts those boffo paychecks weekly.

Understandably, Real do not want him to feature in the playoff against Bosnia & Herzegovina despite Carlos Queroz’s insistence that he spend a few minutes matching goals with Edin Dzeko. They’d rather he spend 90 minutes doing battle for plaudits and points with Lionel Messi at the end of the month during that moderately sized derby something or other.

This one has all the hallmarks of a 15 round epic prizefight, with the decision dependent on the final blow of the final round. And much like that epic title fight, it’ll probably finish with a trip to the hospital, a ruling by judges and plenty of tears from the losing party.

Over in Rome, meanwhile, things are getting truly gladiatorial. Dunga called up both Juan & Doni for the upcoming Brazil friendlies against the likes of Oman and England. Neither played this weekend against Inter, and neither would play next weekend were there a game. So, with both players made of glass anyway, Roma refused to released them for international duties. Brazil refused their refusal. Swords at the ready.

Were this a do-or-die game such as the one instigating the battle for CR9’s soul, it’d be understandable. Were these friendlies directly before the World Cup and necessary for such intangibles as squad integration, it’d be understandable. But there should be some sort of rule which stipulates that players, particularly those like Juan whose hamstrings inexplicably manage to pull themselves at the mere mention of ‘international break’, who are not fully fit for friendlies more than three months from a major tournament cannot play. Call it the Juan Club, Juan Country Rule.

But there is hope, you see. Rafa, polite man that he is, requested to Fabio Capello that an injured Steven Gerrard not be included in those very same friendlies. (The very same Steven Gerrard buzzing about the pitch on my live television feed right now.) Fabio Capello, honorable man that he is, obliged. And they all lived happily ever after.

It can happen. It won’t, but it can.

Back to form: Steelers look Super in Monday-night win

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Monday, November 9, 2009

NFL Week 9: Comebacks aplenty at season's midpoint

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Sunday, November 8, 2009

College football's stretch run: Seven players, coaches in the spotlight

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Saturday, November 7, 2009

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Was Zinedine Zidane’s Retirement Just a Clever Marketing Ploy?

Posted: 06 Nov 2009 12:22 PM PST

zidane every team needsSome advance warning: This post is going to be mildly critical of Zinedine Zidane. Nothing too harsh, because – as for many people – he was one of my favourite players to watch. The vision, the touch, the roulettes, the shiny bald patch. Loved it. But that’s also the reason I’m about to mildly criticize him. Don’t worry, this will all make sense in a minute.

My disappointment with Zizou is as follows: The man retired from football in July 2006. That’s well over three years ago. Yet despite no longer being a professional footballer, Zinedine Zidane still keeps trying to sell me things, usually things branded with three stripes.

Most recently he’s been fronting the “Every Team Needs…” campaign, which is – no question – an excellent set of ads.

But, aside from the question of whether someone who is no longer a professional footballer should be allowed to tell us which boots to wear (my answer: maybe) I can’t shake the suspicion that Zidane is such a great marketing frontman because we’re all being denied the chance to see him in action.

I know, that sounds a little conspiracy theory-ish. Maybe it is. But hear me out anyway.

My (conspiracy?) theory is that we all still wish Zidane was playing. Vision, touch, roulettes, shiny head, etcetera. We can’t though, because he hung up his boots a few years earlier than he needed to (can you imagine if he’d joined an MLS team instead of retiring in 2006?). As a result of this earlier than (we) wanted retirement, we’re all still desperate for a glimpse of the great man. So, Adidas and Zizou are exploiting our desire to see him back in action and involved with football, by using it to sell us products.

Check out this recent video for an example:

Thousands of Japanese fans poured into a stadium – a stadium! – for the launch of the new Adidas Predator boot. But really they turned up for a glimpse of Zizou in action. I don’t usually watch promo videos (mostly because I can’t afford any new boots) but I still clicked play and sat through it. Because I was hoping to see Zidane in action. Which I did, but only towards the end of the video, after I’d absorbed the three stripe corporate message.

College Football Extra: 12 pages of previews, predictions, player diaries

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