This picture is both a brilliant jab at a certain Portuguese winger by Albanian fans at the weekend’s qualifier and a stern reminder to the Portugal team that the name on your kit alone won’t book your ticket to South Africa, as spots for next summer’s tournament begun dropping off this weekend.
Most of the big teams are doing quite well, thank you (Holland sends its love from South Africa), but as it stands, there are some expected participants who might not have any security concerns for the summer of 2010 in the southern most part of Africa. Security issues at home, however, might be another case entirely…
Right now, Europe is really the only continent where the sweat has begun to trickle, as other qualification tournaments are either shaking out as planned or still have more than enough time for the keeling to right the ship (that’s you, Mexico).
Africa’s third round has only just begun, having played two of the six games (and squads like Gabon adorning the top of the group tables), so it’s not quite time to sound the sirens there - though two-time defending continental champs Egypt might want to start worrying about picking up one point from their first two fixtures. Ditto for CONCACAF, which is just halfway through a one group home-and-away leaving ample time for the faltering.
Asia’s three biggest footballing nations - Australia, Japan and South Korea (sorry, Uzbekistan) - have already taken three of the five spots, so for the others it’s merely Christmas come early. And over in South America, things seem to be shaping up as they should, with Brazil, Paraguay, Chile and Argentina all deservedly looking to a holiday-free summer of 2010 (with two-time WC champ Uruguay currently looking at that playoff spot).
Full standings for the others at FIFA.
And this, for now, leaves Europe, obviously the largest and deepest qualifying group with some teams feeling the heat. Five, maybe six, teams expected to do far better find themselves in real danger of missing out on second place. A spot which doesn’t even guarantee automatic qualification to the finals - it only ushers them into a playoff which will send eight of the nine runners-up to South Africa. Work to do certainly.
Group 1
Portugal: Four points away from Hungary with four to go and it was damn near six away only for Bruno Alves to win it at the death in Albania. The home match against Malta will be an easy three on the final day of qualification, but by then it might not matter. Before that they must travel to runaway group winners Denmark while playing a crucial home-and-away with upstarts Hungary.
Easily the biggest upset should they miss out on SA2010.
Sweden: Most probably had Portugal and Sweden coming out of this group, and rightfully so. But every few tournaments Sweden fail to qualify, and the loss to Denmark in sorta-Stockholm this weekend might’ve claimed their eighth life with no one to blame but themselves, after Kim Kallstrom missed a peno and the always-reliable Henrik Larsson missed a begging sitter late on. Certainly seems like this one coming up will be their tourny off.
Group 3
Czech Republic: Another with no one to blame but themselves. The Czechs found half their team, including captain Tomas Ujfalusi, for yet another prostitute scandal, forcing the coach to resign. They’re 5 off of second placed Northern Ireland, with a game in hand, but that doesn’t help the fact that scoring 6 in 6 games against qualifying competition won’t get you anywhere close to the international promised land. And this before worrying about Poland, who are above them in third and have thumped an impressive 18 goals thus far.
Group 4
Turkey: Everyone’s favorite Euro 2008 last-minute heroes, like the Czech Republic, can worry a little less about their position and more about their inability to put the ball in the back of the net. Six against five is not a wonder for/against ratio for a team which should easily be moving onto South Africa. The Turks also having Belgium thundering behind. The waffle makers have a supremely talented generation coming through which might just be one tournament away from the big time, but they’ll only be getting better.
Of course it should be said they’ve played Spain twice already, which only helps despite the results.
Belgium(?): Are we willing to throw the weight of expectation on the Belgians just yet? Maybe, maybe not. But one thing is sure: one of these teams should surely be entering that second-placed playoff ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Group 7
Romania: Not normally a team expected to do great things, they looked so impressive during Euro 2008 qualification that sitting three off France in second, with Les Bleus having a game in hand, and a -3 goal differential is nothing short of a disappointment. Perhaps a victim of their own success.
And the teams which have, at least partially, capitalized on their downfalls:
Denmark, Hungary, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia.
Sometimes the World Cup itself is just getting there.
The good news for the 2009 Confederations Cup is that all eight teams are bringing their strongest possible squads. All kinds of talent will be on display, from Kaka to Xavi to Buffon. Plus New Zealand will be there, so you know it’s the real deal.
(I found this photo of Japan fans quite disturbing. Let’s hope those are Japanese flags on his chest and not the result of piercings gone horribly wrong.) 
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