Friday, November 13, 2009

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World Cup 2010 Playoffs: Pick Your Six Winners

Posted: 13 Nov 2009 04:00 AM PST

trapWith 23 nations already qualified for World Cup 2010, there are just nine places in South Africa still up for grabs. Three of those will be decided when African qualifying concludes next Wednesday. But that’s a separate post. The six other qualifiers will be decided by playoffs, starting tomorrow.

There are eight European teams competing for four places. They’ll play two legs over the next five days (Saturday, November 14th and Wednesday, November 18th) and the four winners go to South Africa. Second prize is watching World Cup 2010 on television.

Similarly, there’s the acronym-lovers delight that is the CONCACAF vs CONMEBOL playoff. Same deal. Two legs, one winner.

Last – and some might argue least – there’s the second leg of the Oceania vs Asia playoff.

Those six contests are outlined below, along with my own attempts at picking the six qualifiers. We dare – make that doubledare – you to pick your six World Cup qualifiers in the comments.

Teams on the left are at home on Saturday, November 14th. Teams on the right are at home on Wednesday, November 18th. Best aggregate score over two legs gets a trip to South Africa. And the answer is yes, if scores are level after two legs then away goals count double.


UEFA Playoffs:

Ireland vs France
This is arguably the most interesting of all the playoffs. Mostly because of the war of words that’s going on. Raymond Domenech was a little disrespectful towards the Irish team last month, and more recently Ireland’s Richard Dunne has suggested that the French players are laughing at Domenech. Juicy.
France WCB preview
Daryl’s pick: France have the superior players, Ireland have the superior coach in Giovanni Trapattoni (pictured). I’m going with Ireland. Because Domenech’s luck can’t last forever, and because he’s already made the Irish players very very angry.

Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Can Portugal handle Bosnia’s Wolfsburg based attacking duo of Edin Džeko and Zvjezdan Misimović? Maybe, maybe not. There will officially be no Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal. But that might not be a bad thing. Relying on an injured superstar is never a great strategy. The real difference here could be Portugal’s recently Brazilian-born striker Liédson, the goal-getter whose naturalization and international debut four games ago not so co-incidentally co-incided with Portugal’s change in fortunes.
Portugal WCB preview
Daryl’s pick: Portugal over two legs, but will be close.

Greece vs Ukraine
I’ll be honest, I don’t know a great deal about the current Greece national team, other than the fact that Theofanis Gekas was top scorer in Euro qualifying with 10, but not deemed good enough to play for Portsmouth last season. So mixed messages there. I saw Ukraine get a deserved 1-0 win over England recently and would find it hard to bet against them, especially with a much happier looking Andriy Shevchenko being motivated by one more shot at World Cup glory.
Ukraine WCB preview (new Ukraine blogger Bannon doing some great work there).
Daryl’s pick: Ukraine. It’s not just Shevchenko. It’s also guys like his Dynamo Kyiv strike partner Milevskiy (I love the idea of club and international duos), Barcelona defender Dmytro Chyhrynskiy, and Bayern’s long-haired midfield destructor Anatoliy Tymoschuk.

Russia vs Slovenia
Slovenia seemed like the team everyone else wanted to draw in these playoffs, mostly because their squad isn’t full of household names. I’ve heard them described as “organized” in defence, but lacking firepower. That probably won’t be enough to get past Russia, who ran Germany very very close in Group 4. Also, playoffs are knockout football, a place where Guus Hiddink is king.
Daryl’s pick: Guus + Arshavin + the fact we don’t have a Slovenia blog = Russia going though.

CONCACAF/CONMEBOL Playoff:
Costa Rica vs Uruguay
It’s always tempting to pick the South American team over the CONCACAF team, just because. But this game is going to be all about home field advantage and how much you can make of it. Costa Rica’s Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá (aka the Monster’s Cave) has artificial turf, which has to be to Costa Rica’s advantage since they’ll be more familiar. But they’ll need to build up a lead at home, because going to a packed Centenario in Montevideo is going to be overwhelming. Uruguay looked woeful in the all-important qualifier vs Argentina last month, but the firepower of Diego Forland and Luis Suarez should be enough to see them through.
Daryl’s pick: Uruguay
(Want to write our vacant Costa Rica or Uruguay blog? Read this and then get in touch.)

OCEANIA/ASIA Playoff:
New Zealand (0) vs Bahrain (0)
Those goose eggs are there in brackets because the first leg of this has already been played. And it was ugly. A goalless draw in Bahrain in which neither team looked even close to capable of scoring. So no away goals for New Zealand, but they do have homefield advantage and the motivation of playing in front of 35,000 (the biggest ever NZ soccer crowd) in Wellington. Plus they have talents like Blackburn’s Ryan Nelsen and Celtic’s Chris Killen to call on. Bahrain are no mugs though. They’ve already beaten Saudi Arabia in the Asian playoff to get here, and could easily catch the All Whites out with a counter-attack and take this on away goals. I’m nervous just writing about it.
Daryl’s pick: Heart says New Zealand (because we have a NZ blog) but head says Bahrain.


So, my six winners are as follows:

Ireland
Portugal
Ukraine
Russia
Uruguay
Bahrain

Yours?

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Thursday, November 12, 2009

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ESPN Can Predict The Future.

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 12:40 PM PST

353093675330959364espn_corp_logoESPN has taken more than their fair share of stick for their football/soccer coverage, and for good reason. They’re American (despite dubbing themselves The Global Leader) and, by and large, they do American sports well. Others: not so much.

But they’ve gone off-script with their latest venture, the Soccer Power Index, designed to render World Cup 2010 moot. Much like every other acronym in the sporting world, they’ve compiled a list of rankings designed to tell us the fairest in the land. Unlike the other rankings systems, they don’t want the answer to the here and now. No, they want the future.

And don’t we all.

Why rate the teams at all? Well, from my perspective, we do it not because we’re interested in the past, but because we’re interested in the future. The SPI ratings are intended to be forward-looking. They’re intended to be predictive; every variable in the SPI has been tuned to give you the best possible objective and statistical forecast of how a team will perform in South Africa.

It’s a novel idea, yet one ultimately doomed to failure as that is simply the nature of football rankings system.

The methodologies require a four year major in SoccerPowerIndexology and it wouldn’t be imprudent to sail into the doctorate program as well. But then no one said predicting the future would be easy.

spi

So from this we can decipher…

  • Brazil will win number 6, which most should be predicting anyway.
  • Fabio Capello’s semifinal or bust ultimatum wasn’t so imprudent, what with Peter Crouch scoring a perfect hat trick in the Third Placed Game.
  • Diego Maradona will be canned, resign or die from bloating in the next 8 months, as there’s no way in hell they’re making it to the quarters with him on the sidelines.
  • Italy & France will get bounced in the Round of 16 and both will deny that South Africa 2010 ever happened, much like 2002.
  • Bonus prediction: Raymond Domenech will keep his job.
  • Croatia will nearly make it out of the group stages, despite not traveling to South Africa. Presumably based entirely on Slaven Bilic’s coolness.
  • The only African team to make it to the knockouts will be, rather disappointingly, Cameroon, where they will not win a game.
  • Home advantage is a myth. South Africa: 65th.

And all this makes the rankings both curious and brilliant, as they house a built-in mechanism which renders them near inarguable. Can you predict the future better than them? Are you the reincarnation of Nostradamus? Didn’t think so.

Well, there is one argument easily made: Guus Hiddink won’t win one in the knockouts with Russia?

Bullshit.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

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Club vs Country Crisis Averted: Cristiano Ronaldo Officially Out of World Cup Playoffs

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 05:10 AM PST

ronaldo ankleThis seems almost impossibly unimportant following the sad news of Robert Enke’s passing, but Cristiano Ronaldo will now definitely miss both legs of Portugal’s World Cup 2010 playoff vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (November 14th and 18th). The story had been steadily building into the club vs country smackdown to end all club vs country smackdowns, with Real Madrid insisting their player was injured and unavailable (and doubly so since said ankle injury is a direct result of C-Ron playing for Portugal last month when not fully fit) and Portugal maintaining it was there right to call up whoever they want. I got the feeling that fingers in both camps were hovering over metaphorical nuclear weapon buttons. But…

Incredibly, a very sensible compromise was reached. Real had initially refused to release Ronaldo, but then decided to let him meet up with the Portuguese squad and staff so they could see for themselves that his ankle was not football-ready. So he did, and they did, and all are now agreed that Cristiano Ronaldo needs more time to recover.

“After clinical evaluation and imaging, it was concluded that the player is not physically able to integrate the preparation stage of the national team for these games,” read a statement on the Portuguese FF’s Web site on Tuesday night.

“The Portuguese Football Federation wish the player a good and quick recovery.”

A rare club vs country case where everyone did the right thing and the correct decision was made.

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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

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The Battle For Cristiano Ronaldo’s Soul & Other, Less Significant Club v Country Standoffs.

Posted: 09 Nov 2009 01:32 PM PST

Cristiano-Ronaldo-Portugal-Euro-2008-Training_921770Who needs actual footballing playoffs when you can just watch the bureaucratic battle that is club v country?

Whilst Portugal v Bosnia – Herzegovina is titillating the football purist and Russia v Slovenia has forced Jonathan Wilson into euphoric bouts of nervous bowels, the real battle lies behind the scenes, in the board rooms, between those who cut the checks and those who require international glory.

The big issue is, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo and that pesky little ankle of his. Yet as ever with international weekends, there is gladiatorial sparring befitting of Rome itself.

(Mostly because Roma’s involved.)

The Portuguese Man O’Oil has been out since September after taking a hit to the ankle against Marseille. What would’ve been a standard few weeks off turned into an affair when, against the wishes of the great Real Madrid, he played in Portugal’s must-win against Hungary. As is always the case, he reinjured the ankle and has been unable to feature for the team which cuts those boffo paychecks weekly.

Understandably, Real do not want him to feature in the playoff against Bosnia & Herzegovina despite Carlos Queroz’s insistence that he spend a few minutes matching goals with Edin Dzeko. They’d rather he spend 90 minutes doing battle for plaudits and points with Lionel Messi at the end of the month during that moderately sized derby something or other.

This one has all the hallmarks of a 15 round epic prizefight, with the decision dependent on the final blow of the final round. And much like that epic title fight, it’ll probably finish with a trip to the hospital, a ruling by judges and plenty of tears from the losing party.

Over in Rome, meanwhile, things are getting truly gladiatorial. Dunga called up both Juan & Doni for the upcoming Brazil friendlies against the likes of Oman and England. Neither played this weekend against Inter, and neither would play next weekend were there a game. So, with both players made of glass anyway, Roma refused to released them for international duties. Brazil refused their refusal. Swords at the ready.

Were this a do-or-die game such as the one instigating the battle for CR9’s soul, it’d be understandable. Were these friendlies directly before the World Cup and necessary for such intangibles as squad integration, it’d be understandable. But there should be some sort of rule which stipulates that players, particularly those like Juan whose hamstrings inexplicably manage to pull themselves at the mere mention of ‘international break’, who are not fully fit for friendlies more than three months from a major tournament cannot play. Call it the Juan Club, Juan Country Rule.

But there is hope, you see. Rafa, polite man that he is, requested to Fabio Capello that an injured Steven Gerrard not be included in those very same friendlies. (The very same Steven Gerrard buzzing about the pitch on my live television feed right now.) Fabio Capello, honorable man that he is, obliged. And they all lived happily ever after.

It can happen. It won’t, but it can.