Wednesday, March 24, 2010

World Cup 2010 Blog: “World Cup Favorites Ten Weeks Til: It’s Red & Furious.” plus 1 more

World Cup 2010 Blog: “World Cup Favorites Ten Weeks Til: It’s Red & Furious.” plus 1 more

Link to World Cup Soccer - South Africa 2010

World Cup Favorites Ten Weeks Til: It’s Red & Furious.

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:40 AM PDT

FBL-EURO-2008-RUS-ESP-MATCH 30Upon learning that Thierry Henry won’t be participating in the World Cup according to some bookmakers, even though he will, it dawned it’s probably about time to start paying attention to betting odds (entirely unsolicited, for the reccord). I’m not a betting man – it’s not so much the betting but the enforcing I have difficulties with, as I’m still awaiting payment for the 1992 Super Bowl – but I’ve always found fascinating the accuracy with which they predict on paper sports which aren’t played on paper.

Having picked two bookmakers, the unassailable sample of two has drawn a consensus: Andres Iniesta is going to be making a lot more babies.

(Or David Villa. Or Fernando. Or Xavi. The thing is Spain are favorites.)

Paddy Power:

ppodds



William Hill:

whodds

It’s not really worth picking apart nuance down the list, though the Netherlands isn’t getting anywhere near the respect it deserves, so we’re staying right at the top: Brazil, to me, have been, are and will be favorites right up until they’re no longer participants. The Spanish Euro 2008 win was wonderful, but they’d already won it once before (’64), which that didn’t change any fortunes on the global stage – a stage far grander. In fact Spain wouldn’t make the World Cup knockouts until 22 years after their first Euros win. They’re arguably the best collection of individual talent, but that doesn’t always, one could even say often doesn’t, win World Cups. (You’ll have to go all the way back to 2006 to find evidence.) And it’s even rarer that the reigning European champion has repeated with a World Cup – West Germany won in 1974 when it was held in, you guessed it, West Germany.

This not to mention the oft unmentioned Brazilian advantage of drawing a difficult group.

But I suppose the gripe is less with Spain first and Brazil second and more Brazil as a joint-second. They’re awfully, awfully good and deserving of at least co-favorite status.

As for the rest…

- There’s great faith in either Messi, Maradona or Messidona in South Africa – faith which I strongly doubt is cut into even thirds.

- And I wonder how these odds looked before the 1-0 over Germany in Germany earlier this month. Is that the betting man’s money?

- Japanese coach Takeshi Okada believes Japan can make the semifinals; the bookies don’t.

It’ll be interesting to see how the odds evolve over the next ten weeks, and then there’s only that pesky bit about playing the games.


Brazil World Cup Team History: Part IV (1994 – 2006)

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 04:31 PM PDT

pele and ronaldoBrazil has appeared in every tournament so far – the only team to do so – and won five World Cups – the only team to do so. Our history of Brazil at the World Cup finally comes to a close with Part IV. In Part I we looked back at the long quest for the first trophy. In Part II we relived the golden years of Pele, Garrincha and co. In Part III we looked at the barren spell following 1970 and the wonderful team of 1982. Now we move on to what I think of as the modern period, 1994 to present. Or, if you prefer, the Ronaldo years.


1994 World Cup in the USA

brazil 1994This is where we meet Ronaldo. Sort of. The 17 year old future all time World Cup top goalscorer was in the Brazil squad for the 1994 World Cup, but didn’t see a single second of on-field action. Seems odd to say that now, but that’s before you consider the other attacking options at coach Carlos Alberto Parreira’s disposal. The great Romário was 28, playing for Barcelona, and arguably at his peak, and formed a dangerous attacking partnership with Bebeto. The team was anchored by Dunga in defensive midfield, who also took over the captaincy after Rai was benched in the latter stages. Other significant members of the squad include attacking fullback Jorginho, who had no less a player than Cafu as his backup (!) and also a young Leonardo, in his pre-Milan days.

Brazil coasted through the group stage, beating Russia 2-0, Cameroon 3-0 and drawing 1-1 with Sweden to top Group B of the 24 team tournament. In the round of 16 they faced hosts USA, and went through 1-0 thanks to a goal from Bebeto. Then came arguably the game of the tournament, as Brazil faced the Netherlands in the quarterfinals:

Bebeto set up Romario to make it 1-0, then scored the second himself before leading Brazil in the famous “rock the baby” celebration. Bebeto’s wife had given birth to their third child a few days before the game, and so the celebration was in honour of his newborn. Iconic stuff. The Netherlands came back through Dennis Bergkamp (who was clearly warming up for his 1998 moment of greatness) and Aron Winter to make it 2-2, but left back Branco fired an 81st minute free kick low into the corner to give Brazil a 3-2 win and a place in the semi-finals.

The semifinal opponents were Sweden, who were dispatched 1-0 via Romario’s 80th minute winner. So on to the final and a 1970 final rematch vs Italy. Except this time the game wasn’t so exciting. After 120 minutes the score was still 0-0. So spot kicks it was.

Italy missed three of their five. The great Franco Baresi fired way way over, Daniele Massaro saw his saved, and Roberto Baggio – who’d absolutely lit up the tournament – followed Baresi in aiming too high.

So maybe not the ideal way to win a World Cup. But 24 years after 1970, I doubt too many Brazilians cared.

1998 World Cup in France

ronaldo 1998Incredibly, Brazil’s coach in 1998 was the man who coached them at the 1970 World Cup: Mario Zagallo. The talent in his squad takes some believing. Get ready for this list of names. Brazil 1998 had two of the most dangerous attacking fullbacks the world has ever known in Cafu and Roberto Carlos. Dunga was still there in defensive midfield (though not in his 1994 form) and going forward there was the magic of Barcelona playmaker Rivaldo, and the explosive pace and power and all round unbeatableness of a 21 year old Ronaldo. If you’ve never seen early Ronaldo, then you’ve never seen Ronaldo at all. Factor in the experience of a 34 year old Bebeto and the promise of a 20 year old (pre-Betis) Denilson, and that’s quite a team.

In Group A, the World Cup holders beat Scotland 2-1, beat Morocco 3-0 and then somehow lost 2-1 to Norway by conceding two in the last ten minutes. Norway’s winner was controversial at the time as it appeared to be a controversial penalty. But that’s probably a subject for another post.

In the Second Round Brazil beat Chile 4-1, beat Denmark 3-2 and then beat the Netherlands on penalties after a 1-1 draw. So on to the final vs host nation France, and the mystery of Ronaldo. The striker had scored four goals and made three assists and been an all round menace to opposition defenders / joy to watch in his six games so far. Drink from this video of Ronaldo’s World Cup 1998 highlights to get an idea:

There’s still no official definition of what happened the day of the final. But general consensus is that Ronaldo suffered some sort of seizure the night before, was removed from the Brazil starting lineup for the World Cup final and then reinstated at the last minute. It could have been pressure from sponsors, from the Brazilian football federation or a request from Ronaldo himself. But he played, and played poorly as Brazil lost 3-0. Ronaldo took the golden ball as the tournament’s best player, but – and not for the first time – an excellent Brazil team had failed to deliver the trophy.

2002 World Cup in Japan & South Korea

ronaldoBrazil very nearly failed to qualify for World Cup 2002, but Luiz Felipe (or “Big Phil” if you prefer) Scolari replaced Émerson Leão and righted the ship. Brazil entered 2002 with a strong team on paper: Cafu and Roberto Carlos again, and the attacking trident of The Three Rs: Rivaldo, Ronaldinho and Ronaldo. Rivaldo was still going strong at Barcelona, Ronaldinho was a 22 year old buck-toothed attacking mid at PSG, but once again Ronaldo was the big story. In the four years between the 1998 and World Cup and the 2002 World Cup, Ronaldo suffered two serious knee injuries and two long rehabilitations. But somehow he was back, and ready for another shot at World Cup glory. The now 36 year old Romario was in good form for Fluminense and desperate to play, but Scolari basically decided Romario wasn’t needed. Even though his name began with the letter “R”.

Brazil tore through Group C, beating Turkey 2-1 (the less said about Rivaldo’s dive in the corner the better), beat China 4-0 and beat Costa Rica 5-2. Bosh. Group C was won and Ronaldo already had four goals to his name, Rivaldo three. In the Second Round they dispatched Belgium 2-0 and then faced England in the quarters.

Brazil went one down to a Michael Owen goal, but equalized through Rivaldo and went ahead when Ronaldinho did this with a free kick:

Who shoots from there? Only the most confident and talented footballers, that’s who. Ronaldinho was later sent off, but Brazil held on to their lead.

Brazil beat Turkey 1-0 in the semifinal thanks to another Ronaldo goal, and went on to beat a Michael Ballack-less (he was suspended) Germany 2-0 in the final thanks to some great work from Rivaldo, Oliver Kahn’s only error of the whole tournament, and two more goals from that man Ronaldo.

Really, this was Ronaldo’s tournament. He entered with some asking if he was the same player as in 1998 following those two serious injuries, and with a truly horrible “all shaved except the front tuft” haircut. He left with a World Cup winners medal and the Golden Shoe as World Cup 2002 top scorer with eight goals.
Here’s are the many many highlights of Ronaldo’s 2002 World Cup, edited together by the same people who made the above 1998 vid:

2006 World Cup in Germany

I think of this as the World Cup where fame beat form. Carlos Alberto Parreira was back in charge, and the team entered as many people’s favourites to lift the trophy. But Cafu was 36, Roberto Carlos was 33. Both were probably too old to be effective attacking fullbacks in a World Cup. The forward pairing of Ronaldo and Adriano were both noticeably overweight, and there seemed to be too many creative midfielders competing for too few spots. There was World Player of the Year Ronaldinho, who had been expected to dominate the tournament, but also Kaka of Milan and Juninho of Lyon. None of them really took hold of the tournament.

Brazil took maximum points from Group F by beating Croatia and Autralia 1-0 and Japan 4-1, but they were never particularly impressive. Even in the Japan game, they were 1-0 down in the 34th minute. In the Second Round Brazil faced an exciting Ghana team that played an inexplicably high defensive line, which Brazil exploited without mercy for a 3-0 win. Ronaldo scored the first of those goals after just five minutes, a goal which took him clear of Gerd Muller to be top scorer in World Cup tournament history with 15. Here’s that goal:

In the quarterfinal, Brazil were taken apart by a magnificent Zinedine Zidane performance and lost 1-0 to France, managing just one shot on goal and making a somewhat feeble exit.

More Brazil World Cup History: Part I (1930 to 1954)Part II (1958 to 1970)Part III (1974 to 1990)Part IV (1994 to present)

Overall tournament record:

1930 First Round
1934 First Round
1938 Semi-Finals
1950 Final
1954 Quarter-Finals
1958 Champions
1962 Champions
1966 First Round
1970 Champions
1974 Semi-Finals
1978 Semi-Finals
1982 Second Round
1986 Quarter-Finals
1990 Round of 16
1994 Champions
1998 Final
2002 Champions
2006 Quarter-finals

For more on Brazil, read Duvel’s Brazil blog.
More World Cup Team Histories here.


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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

World Cup 2010 Blog: “One Bookie Makes Sure Thierry Henry’s World Cup Contributions Won’t Count” plus 4 more

World Cup 2010 Blog: “One Bookie Makes Sure Thierry Henry’s World Cup Contributions Won’t Count” plus 4 more

Link to World Cup Soccer - South Africa 2010

One Bookie Makes Sure Thierry Henry’s World Cup Contributions Won’t Count

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 12:10 AM PDT

3096093

Something happened with Thierry Henry and Ireland recent which impacted a nation’s participation in the World Cup. What it was, we won’t rehash – there’ll be plenty of that every time to flip on a television during the month of June.

Incident X has stuck in the craw of Ireland since, drawing ire, contempt and lots of mean words from normally nice people – chances are if you walk around Dublin with a Titi 12 on your back, pleasantries are not forthcoming. And if you ask any expert how best to deal with heartache, they’ll undoubtedly answer “ignoring it”. So that’s precisely what one European bookmaker is doing: paying out bets as though Thierry Henry isn’t participating.

Keith McDonnell, Managing Director of Bodog Europe and, more importantly in this case, an Irishman, has put the kibosh on Henry’s World Cup participation in betting fantasy land:


“I want to enjoy the World Cup and the only way I can do that is if Thierry Henry is no longer part of it,” said McDonnell.

“He has already ruined my World Cup and I want to make sure he can do no more damage.”

The way it works:

For any French game in which Henry plays, punters can now place a bet safe in the knowledge that his goals will not count against them. For example, if a customer backs a draw in a France game and Henry scores, making them 1-0 winners, he will still get paid. This also applies to a first goalscorer and each-way markets too. So, if a punter backs a player to be the highest scorer throughout the tournament and the customer’s selection comes fourth, one below Henry, he would be paid as if he came third. However, if a person places a bet for France to win, all of Henry’s goals will still be counted.

While Keith may feel slightly better, his superiors are probably already popping corks: not only have they appealed to Ireland and any other anti-Henry fans the continent over, they’ve drummed up all sorts of free publicity. As evidenced by…well, everything above.

So while they may loathe Incident X, they probably love making money more.


Soundoff: Will Leo Messi Delight or Disappoint at World Cup 2010?

Posted: 22 Mar 2010 06:40 PM PDT

messi-argentinaObviously you don’t know the answer to that question. Obviously I don’t know the answer to that question. Not even little Leo Messi himself knows that answer to that question. But now still seems like the perfect time to ask it.

Leo Messi is on top of the world right now. Ten goals in his last four games. His form goes brace vs Almeria, hat-trick vs Valencia, brace vs Stuttgart in the Champions League, hat-trick vs Real Zaragoza. More importantly these haven’t just been any old goals. They’ve been the sort of goals that make defenders curse the day YouTube was ever invented. Even better, Messi’s showing us that anything Diego Maradona or Ronaldo can do, he can do too.

The World Cup is all about seeing the world’s best players on the world’s biggest and best stage, and in 2010 that means Leo Messi and South Africa. So let’s just say that we’re all very excited to see him in action this June. However…

… there’s no guarantee the little man will be waltzing through World Cup opposition defences for Argentina the same way he does for Barcelona. Mostly because his form for the two sides has been very very different. Maybe that’s Messi’s fault, maybe that’s Diego Maradona’s fault. Maybe it’s just one of those inexplicable things. But there’s a very real chance that Leo Messi could disappoint us in South Africa.

Seems unthinkable? Cast your mind back to 2006. Ronaldinho was in the sort of form for Barcelona that Messi is in now. Ronaldinho was the reigning World Player of the Year. Ronaldinho was expected to light up the World Cup in Germany. Ronaldinho didn’t, and we were all disappointed. If Messi fails to ignite in South Africa, then almost the entire World Cup audience will be let down. No pressure then Leo.


World Cup Moments: Geoff Hurst, 1966. Did the Ball Cross the Line?

Posted: 22 Mar 2010 09:39 AM PDT

hurst_135577dCan you imagine if both YouTube and blogs had existed in sixties? The events of the 1966 World Cup final would have caused internet meltdown. For those unfamiliar, here’s what happened:

It was hosts England vs West Germany in the final. West Germany had equalized to make it 2-2 late in the match and take it to extra time. So, 11 minutes into extra time, England’s Alan Ball crossed the ball in, and Geoff Hurst turned and shot from just outside the six yard box. The ball hit the bar. The ball bounced down. Either on or over the line. Then Wolfgang Weber headed the ball clear.

The England players celebrated a goal, the West Germany players protested. Swiss referee Gottfried Dienst looked confused, and so consulted his linesman Tofik Bakhramov (who was from Azerbaijan, not Russia, though he was technically a citizen of a Soviet state at the time, which is probably why he became known as “the Russian linesman”). Bakhramov said goal, and it was 3-2 to England.

Here’s a YouTuber of the goal (or “goal”?), with German commentary:

And with English commentary:

It’s been 44 years since that happened. In the intervening years mankind has been to the moon, mapped the human genome and found a way to make Andy Serkis look like a giant gorilla. Yet we’re still arguing over whether goal-line technology is a good idea or not. But that’s another argument for another day.

Obviously Hurst went on to score his third and England’s fourth. Since England won 4-2, you could say the controversial nature of the third goal can be ignored. But since the fourth goal was a direct result of West Germany pushing forward in search of an equalizer, that’s not a great argument. So we’ll ignore that and agree that this is the goal that won the 1966 World Cup.

So, the big question: Did it cross the line or not?


- More World Cup Moments here.


Kulula vs FIFA, Round Two: “Not Next Year, Not Last Year, But Somewhere In Between”

Posted: 22 Mar 2010 08:07 AM PDT

not next yearWe already knew the people at South African budget airline Kulula.com were both cheeky and hilarious. Their World Cup 2010 related Unofficial National Carrier of the You-Know-What advertisement irritated FIFA enough to provoke some legal action, because you can only mention the you-know-what (even without naming it) if you deliver a big sack of money to FIFA HQ. But Kulula weren’t finished there. Because this past weekend they printed a follow up ad in the Sunday Times, making (even more of) a mockery of FIFA’s licensing laws. Their new slogan is “Not Next Year, Not Last Year, But Somewhere In Between”. Also in the smaller print: “there are so many more exciting reasons to travel around our country this year, than just for that thing we wouldn’t dare mention.”

The ad is packed with images that definitely don’t reference the World Cup or 2010 or South Africa. For example, the object at the top of the page might look like a vuvuzela, but we are assured in the text that it is: “definitely, definitely a golf tee.” There’s the man who appears to be playing soccer, but is actually “putting his right foot in, his right foot out” and doing the Hokey Cokey. Which FIFA do not own. There even appears to be a South African flag (another symbol of the World Cup), except, the ad claims, it may actually be just a brightly coloured beach towel. But enough description, take a look for yourself:

kulula2



Image via: MarkLives!

Rather than pointing out every little detail, I’ll leave you to enjoy finding the rest of the not at all World Cup related jokes. I’ll add only this. There’s a short-sighted baby in there, and there are no prizes for guessing which organization that represents.

Is Kulula playing with fire here? Almost certainly, and if FIFA decided to pursue this ad in the courts, then the budget airline could be in a world of pain. But it’s still fantastic that a satirical mirror is being held up the tyrannical silliness that is FIFA’s licensing laws, and long overdue. Here’s hoping they don’t like what they see.


World Cup Moments: The Bittersweet Brilliance Of Totaalvoetbal, 1974.

Posted: 22 Mar 2010 03:10 AM PDT

johan-cruyff

Total Football is such a visual spectacle it seems unjust to describe it by words. It’s football’s art – that which requires no explanation, merely open senses. Fortunately we live in the YouTube era, and as such those spectacles are only a click away.

The Johan Cruijff-won Oranje penalty – all ninety seconds of it – from the 1974 final against West Germany, along with a compilation of the side’s finest moments from their bittersweet tournament…

[More World Cup Moments]