World Cup 2010 Blog: “Japan vs. South Korea Statistical Preview” plus 2 more

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• Japan vs. South Korea Statistical Preview
• Siphiwe Tshabalala’s Coming To Europe
• Uzbekistan vs. Australia Statistical Preview

Japan vs. South Korea Statistical Preview Posted: 24 Jan 2011 12:36 PM PST Thanks to the folks over at the AFC official site, we have some statistics to discuss looking forward to Tuesday’s Asian Cup semifinal between Japan and South Korea. Here’s what the numbers tell us: Goalkeeping and Defense Japan is one of the best teams in this tournament, without a doubt, but they have looked suspect a number of times at the back. The only clean sheet in their four matches so far have come against a frankly terrible Saudi Arabian side in their 5-0 win, and they were the only one of the finalists to concede more than one goal in the quarters. If Qatar can get two past them, they can expect South Korea’s Koo Ja-Cheol to be trouble. South Korea has been on decent form defensively, allowing only one goal from open play, but conceding two penalties in the group stage brings up some concerns about the discipline of their back line. They kept an Iran team from scoring in the quarterfinals that had been perfect with three wins up to that point. Advantage: South Korea Passing and Midfield Japan’s midfield is impressive, especially going forward. They’ve completed a tournament second-best 1552 passes, only four less than leaders Uzbekistan. Kaisuke Honda may not be scoring a ton of goals, but he is running things very efficiently in the middle for Japan, who held 59% of possession in the quarters against Qatar. South Korea has been less impressive in this area, but has individuals whose work rate could have an effect – no one ran more distance during the quarterfinal round than their Lee Yong-Rae, and no one was faster in that round than teammate Yeom Ki-Hun. Advantage: Japan Attack Japan is the best attacking team of the tournament so far, hands down. Their 11 goals are the most by any team, and three more than any other. This stat was heavily influenced by the aforementioned beatdown they handed Saudi Arabia, but they were also the most productive attack in the quarterfinals, putting three past a Qatar team that had only conceded two in the group stage. Honda, Kagawa, Okazaki, Maeda, Hasebe – these are all players that can hurt you. On the Korean side is the tournament’s joint lead scorer, Koo Ja-Cheol, who has had a great tournament but the team only has four different goalscorers so far this tournament, to Japan’s seven. South Korea has taken more shots on goal and provided more crosses, but have not finished them as well. Advantage: Japan What to Expect Japan has to be the favorite, but not by much. Their defensive woes are a worry, and a team that has squeaked by several times already has to worry about this match. In their first two matches, it took very late goals to salvage a win and a draw, and against Qatar, they had to come back from behind and again left it until literally the last minute. One wonders if their luck will hold. South Korea has not been much more authoritative in their wins, needing an injury-time goal over Iran to pass through the quarters. Statistically, neither one stands out all that far from the other. After going back and forth between predicting each a winner, I’m calling this one to go to extra time and leaving it at that. For more on these two teams, check out our excellent Japan and South Korea blogs.

Siphiwe Tshabalala’s Coming To Europe Posted: 24 Jan 2011 11:10 AM PST Arguably the African-based breakout star of the World Cup in his home country, there was much speculation at the time as to when – not if – Siphiwe Tshabalala would come to Europe, and which country’s commentators would be afforded the chance to say his wonderful name. And now, eight months later, we know: England. Of course if it was the Premiership that’s how it would read – he’s signed with Nottingham Forest, currently of the Championship and Prem aspirants (6th and in the playoff places at the moment). Much like another breakout star from the World Cup, Jong Tae-Se, the move to football’s dominant continent will be done with a stopover in the second division – Jong signed with Bochum in the 2. Bundesliga. And Tshabalala even did so after going through a one-week trial, which seems a bit much for a World Cup hero and someone whose name alone will send shirts flying right off the racks. (And don’t forget the faux-stensions, too.) The left winger, 26, said: “I am excited to have passed the trial, and will be looking forward to making a good start when I return here in a few months time. Forest's request to look at Tshabalala on trial before agreeing a deal did not go down well in South Africa where some commentators saw it as a snub. But the player remained unconcerned. He said: “They asked to have a closer look at me and I don’t have a problem with that. I know that there are other clubs who would’ve possibly signed me straight away but Nottingham Forest asked to have a look at me and I am very happy.” Perhaps they just wanted a one-week sneak peek at that awesome dance.

Uzbekistan vs. Australia Statistical Preview Posted: 24 Jan 2011 10:58 AM PST Thanks to the folks at the AFC’s official site, we have a look at the stats for the Aussies and Uzbeks going into Tuesday’s Asian Cup semifinal. Here’s how the teams have looked on paper: Defense and Goalkeeping Statistically, Australia are by far the best defensive team of this tournament. They’ve allowed only one goal in their four matches, and they are the only team in the semifinals to have kept more than one clean sheet so far. Mark Schwarzer’s 94% save rate is the best in the tournament. Uzbekistan on the other hand has allowed four goals in as many matches and their only clean sheet was in their 2-0 opener against Qatar. Ignatiy Nesterov has saved 74% of shots on goal. Advantage: Australia Midfield and Passing The Uzbekistan midfield has had an impressive tournament. The team’s total passes (1556) just edges out Japan for the best in the tournament so far, and is significantly more than Australia’s 1285. Their 219 interceptions are also a tournament best, so Australia will have more trouble getting the ball forward against this team than they have against any other they’ve faced. Advantage: Uzbekistan Attack Before getting into the numbers for each of these teams, have a look at the heat maps of their quarterfinal matches: The images (attacking right to left) show a fairly different style in the attacking third. Uzbekistan is wider, playing to the wings, while Australia’s attack is very central and direct. This isn’t necessarily good or bad for either side, just a difference in how they ran their attack. But the numbers so far for the tournament are mostly in Australia’s favor in this category. They lead the Uzbeks in shots, shots on goal and crosses. The Uzbeks have been deadlier in front of goal, though, converting fewer chances into one more goal than the Aussies (8 vs. 7). Advantage: Tough to call What to Expect The numbers tell us to expect a tight match. The Aussies have been so strong on defense, going over 250 minutes since their last conceded goal, and that’s a hard stat to argue with. “Defense wins championships” is one of the most basic sports cliches, and it remains one because it is so often true. Australia also has the advantage of having played better competition to this point. The Aussies have drawn with South Korea and beaten Iraq, whereas Uzbekistan had Qatar and Jordan standing in their way. The hosts are always tough to be beat, but you have to give the advantage on strength of schedule to Australia. For all of these reasons, the Australians seem to be a moderate favorite for a 1-0 or 2-1 victory. The Uzbeks will need a moment of brilliance from Server Djeparov or Odil Akhmedov to break free of the numbers and claim their place in the final.

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